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While there may be a shift underway in the minds of first home buyers, will the turning of the cycle be as swift going back as it was going back down?

While housing markets move in cycles, there is something very different about this downward leg of the housing cycle. But with the endgame upon us, will house prices stop falling?

Changes made to the official cash rate strongly affect floating mortgage rates, but when it comes to fixed rates it is expectations for what will happen with monetary policy that truly matter.

On average over the past decade there have been around 81,000 dwellings sold each year all around New Zealand, but the way things are tracking we look set to see a fall to around 65,000 within the coming year. How will we know when things are going to turn around?

When will house prices stop falling? No-one knows. But it looks like we are quite a long way off the bottom being reached for a number of reasons.

Development companies have been recently finding that client enquiries are falling away. People can see prices falling so will naturally feel the longer they wait perhaps the cheaper the construction cost will be.

How do I know when a downturn in the market is serious, entrenched, and likely to last for some time? There are a number of measures I look at including data on prices and results from my surveys, but one special factor is the blame game.

Here is a quick high level run-through of the main things happening in the residential real estate market on average in New Zealand.

Recently, I wrote a lengthy article listing the main things I am saying about the NZ residential property market at the moment – some of which I have been warning about for 12-18 months. Here are most of those points in summarised form.

Independent Economist Tony Alexander gives his take on the factors that are playing into falling house prices. Will things be easier for first home buyers with the housing market softening and easing CCCFA rules?

The expectation held by most of us is that average prices will fall about 10%. That sounds reasonable. But before anyone gets fixated on that number it pays to note something very important.

Economist Tony Alexander says throughout 2022 and 2023, buyers are likely to keep holding the upper hand in negotiations. All one has to do however is either secure a mortgage (not so easy at the moment) or have cash and therefore no need for one in order to take advantage of this market.